statistical difficulties

[miriam_e]

In a couple of places recently I've read the uncritical statement that caffeine and nicotine have some apparent protective effect against alzheimers. I find this difficult to believe. I have seen spurious statistical effects before and have to wonder if this is another. Did study control for the number of people killed by cigarettes and coffee? If people die earlier from cigarettes then a younger, intrinsically more resilient group will remain, who may well be less likely to get alzheimers, but not because nicotine protects; it would be simply that the cigarettes had already killed the most susceptible.

I know people are fond of saying that caffeine is safe, but I frankly don't believe it (to my shame I do drink caffeine). When I was a kid I embarked on an experiment with a friend at school to mutate fruit flies by feeding caffeine to them. Doesn't sound like a safe substance to me. Doesn't it strike anybody else as odd that caffeine producing plants are rendered fairly safe from pests. Why would that be do you suppose? Perhaps the insects are, in a sense, smarter than we are. I am almost willing to bet that some day in the future we will find that caffeine has been afflicting society with massive health problems that we have been studiously ignoring, just as we did for so long with cigarettes, and still do to some degree with alcohol.

Comments

[miriam-e.livejournal.com]

I think the politicians feel they have to be seen to do stuff. It doesn't matter much whether it is truly good. I think it is the visibility that matters, like putting up statues to themselves. They keep wanting to bring daylight saving in to Queensland too, even though numerous surveys have shown most people don't want it, and scientific studies show that it wastes energy and doesn't get people more time. So it is with fluoridation, but perhaps with a subtle twist. It's my understanding that the soft drink and candy manufacturers and the aluminium industry want fluoridation. The sugar people, because it would remove one constraint on feeding their products to people because teeth would be more resistant. The aluminium industry wants it because they previously had to pay to get rid of the fluoride byproduct of aluminium refinery. Now they get paid by the government to dump it in our water. So I think the fluoride issue is not simply a matter of politicians wanting to be seen to do something; there is some corruption there too.

I burn incense occasionally too. It is nice. Even a tiny amount of it can alter moods without filling a room with a smoggy haze.

The vegetable oils... they were part of a very big campaign back in, I think it was the late 60s early 70s. I've always been very suspicious of that because nobody ever seemed to be able to point to actual facts, and it coincided too well with the explosion of margarine manufacturers and cooking oils. Now we are finding that they don't have the great advantages they were promoted for. I've often wondered if it was that decision-makers suddenly realised how much DDT was in animal fat and what a danger it posed to the entire population, but to scare people away from DDT would have hurt the chemical industries. Much better to sell them something new. I may be wrong in this, and expect I'll never know... but I shall always wonder.

We truly are still in our infancy. I'd love to be able to see where we will be in 500 years... if we survive the next few decades, that is.

I've been following some of Sam Harris' interest in trying to get a science of morality established. It seems to me that if he gets his way we may vastly accelerate our ability to do good. That would be soooo wonderful to see.

[dorjejaguar.livejournal.com]

Hmm, yah, you're probably right about the politicians motivations. I find it difficult to fathom some of their actions.
Well goodness, now I'm questioning the vegetable oil thing. Although it hardly matters, I gotta put something in the pan when I'm cooking and I favor at least a bit of fat for the taste.

I don't know about this Sam Harris person. Who is he?

[miriam-e.livejournal.com]

Sam Harris? :)
I'd been wondering whether to write more about his latest exploits here. I think you've just decided me. :)

[dorjejaguar.livejournal.com]

Yay! I am looking forward to it. :)